Uncertainty Analysis in the Heat Transfer to a Hypersonic Reentry Vehicle

Benjamin R. Bettis
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Advisor: Dr. Serhat Hosder


Abstract
In this study, the heat transfer rate to a generic crew module geometry, similar to the Orion Crew Module, was the main topic of interest. More specifically, particular interest was paid to the uncertainty in the heat transfer rate to the surface of the vehicle during atmospheric reentry. To accomplish these tasks, a design framework was constructed using the software ModelCenter, which integrated several analysis codes into one package. Using this tool, the reentry trajectory of the reentry vehicle was determined, which then gave the altitude where the maximum heat transfer rate occurred. At this particular altitude, uncertainty analysis was performed for the stagnation point heat transfer rate. For the analysis, the freestream Mach and geometric radius of the heat shield were treated as stochastic variables. The variable input conditions were then propagated to the output variable of interest using Point Collocation Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos (NIPC). To show the validity of the NIPC method, the results were also compared with a traditional Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the study have shown that there can be significant uncertainty in the heat transfer rate to the surface during reentry. The study has also shown that the NIPC produces results very similar to the Monte Carlo simulation, but the NIPC is computationally more efficient. In future studies, the design framework, added with new analysis programs, will be extended to a general tool for the design and analysis of a hypersonic reentry vehicle.
Benjamin Bettis is originally from Hillsboro, MO. He is a senior studying Aerospace Engineering at Missouri S&T. After graduating in May 2009, he plans on attending graduate school in order to acquire a Ph.D. in Aerospace Engineering. After school, he hopes to find a career that is both challenging and exciting. He looks forward to what the future may bring, and hopes to find joy in all of his future endeavors.
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