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Danielle Kozlowski, Bradley Zavodsky, and Gary Jedlovec
University of Missouri - Columbia
Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL
NASA Mentor: Bradley Zavodsky
Abstract
Abstract
The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One of SPoRT's products is a three-dimensional analysis that includes retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which SPoRT began producing in real-time at the beginning of June. Comparing this product with control analyses that include no AIRS data demonstrates the value these data add to nowcasting for the pre-convective (and convective) environment. AIRS is a sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere, which when blended with a model first guess from the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model can address this forecast challenge. AIRS profiles are unique in that they give a three dimensional view of the atmosphere that is not available through the current rawinsonde network. AIRS has two overpass swaths across North America each day, one valid in the 0700-0900 UTC timeframe and the other in the 1900-2100 UTC timeframe. This is helpful because the rawinsonde network only has data from 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC at specific locations. The analysis comparisons include convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), relative humidity (RH) values, wind values, and precipitable water (Pwat) values in order to understand how well AIRS is analyzing the atmosphere in comparison to the WRF. Many case studies were created and analyzed for this project. The two most interesting cases were from June 2010 and were both located over the southeast United States and the Gulf of Mexico. After the analysis, it was discovered that AIRS profiles produced fields of convective potential closer to an analysis used by an operational forecaster (the RUC) than the CNTL analysis over water (data-void regions). Mixed results were found when AIRS data were used over land in some of the case studies, so it cannot be determined at this time whether or not AIRS would be an effective forecasting tool over land. Additional analyses of problematic convective forecasts over the Gulf Coast will be needed to determine the operational impact of AIRS. SPoRT eventually plans to transition the AIRS product to select Weather Forecast Office (WFO) partners, pending the outcome of these additional analyses.
Danielle Kozlowski grew up in St. Charles, Missouri, and is currently a senior atmospheric science student in the Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Science (SEAS) Department at the University of Missouri - Columbia. Danielle is also pursuing a minor in mathematics and a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) certificate. For the past three years she has been an officer for the Meteorology club and is currently the club president. After attending graduate school and receiving her master's degree in atmospheric science, Danielle would like to work for the National Weather Service or in the private sector doing research. |
